Khaled Eltokhy

about

I am a PhD candidate in Economics at the CUNY Graduate Center and a former IMF research analyst.

I study the gap between government budgets and the roads and housing that actually get built. My research uses satellite imagery and AI to measure these discrepancies directly, focusing on Egypt to show how enforcement and informal markets determine which neighborhoods grow and which get left behind.

experience

International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department

Research AnalystJanuary 2020 – July 2022

I worked on public investment management in fragile and climate-vulnerable states. Led the empirical analysis that became the PIM bottlenecks paper, conducted field assessments in Grenada, Haiti, and Nepal, and developed the climate impact methodology that went into the 2020 Fiscal Monitor. The work combined diagnostic frameworks (PIMAs), cross-country empirical analysis, and on-the-ground capacity development in post-conflict settings.

Key projects: disaster-adjusted capital stock methodology for Haiti, reform sequencing analysis across low-income countries, climate-responsive infrastructure governance frameworks.

research

current projects

Global Games and Coups

Methods: Global games, structural estimation, political economy, econometrics

This theoretical and empirical project develops an estimable global-games model of coups d’état, separating feasibility (coordination) from desirability (payoffs). We bridge economics and political science and bring the model to data to quantify the mechanisms behind coup success.

The Political Economy of Building Regulation

Methods: Administrative data, satellite imagery, causal inference

Combining administrative records with satellite imagery, I study Egypt’s nationwide building freeze to quantify how abrupt regulatory shocks shift formal and informal construction. The project documents adaptation margins under limited state capacity and speaks to the effectiveness and limits of enforcement-heavy regulation.

Institutional Reform and Public Sector Efficiency

Methods: Causal inference, panel data analysis

Using contract-level procurement data and the staggered rollout of Public Investment Management Assessments (PIMAs), I estimate the causal impact of external diagnostics on procurement outcomes and efficiency, isolating changes attributable to the assessments rather than secular trends.

publications

How to Improve Public Investment Management in Low-Income Countries

IMF How-To Note • January, 2025

Provides practical guidance for strengthening investment frameworks in resource-constrained settings. Identifies critical institutional bottlenecks and proposes a sequenced reform approach that accounts for capacity limitations, with concrete implementation strategies for effective infrastructure delivery.

Public Investment Management Bottlenecks in Low-Income Countries

IMF Working Paper • November, 2024

Identifies key institutional constraints limiting public investment efficiency using PIMA data and principal component analysis. Quantifies significant efficiency gaps and potential gains from targeted governance improvements.

Monitoring the Climate Impact of Fiscal Policy

IMF Working Paper • October, 2021

Develops an archetype-based methodology (IMF Green Tracker) to categorize fiscal measures across sectors by environmental impact and discusses green budgeting frameworks and cross-country comparability.

research assistance

data

EPEC Country-Sector-Year

Reproducible extract from the European PPP Expertise Centre (EPEC) portal with aggregated public-private partnership (PPP) project data spanning 1990–2021, organized by country, sector, and year.

Egypt NUCA Cities

GeoJSON dataset mapping all cities developed by Egypt's New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) using administrative boundaries for improved research accessibility.

Shorouk News Archive

Comprehensive archive of Egypt's Shorouk News from January 2010 to present, providing a valuable resource for studying Egyptian media, politics, and society over time.

teaching

STA 2000Business Statistics

2025–26 2024–25 2023–24 2022–23 • Baruch College

ECON 2200Elementary Microeconomics

2023–24 • Brooklyn College

ECON 3410Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics I

2024–25 • Brooklyn College

ECON 4400Advanced Economics and Business Statistics

2025–26 2024–25 • Brooklyn College